Genzyme Contingent Value Rights – no value here
I’m amazed how many people visit my blog to look at the singularly uninteresting post I did about the Genzyme Contingent Value Rights (GCVRZ) back in May. In retrospect I’m sorry I ever made that post. What was I thinking? I feel like I led readers astray. GCVRZ is not a value investment. It is pure speculation! That is, unless you 1) have inside information (in which case I don’t want to know about it) or 2) have some fantastic insights about pharmaceutical regulatory process and the potential commercial success of Lemtrada.
Myself, I don’t believe there is a good way to handicap the outcome. There is certainly no margin of safety; either the milestones are met or they aren’t. So this is pure speculation. You might include it in a very diversified portfolio of companies with drugs under development as a small (and I mean really small) position if you have some insight into the issues… but I strongly recommend against it.
So, once again folks, get over it! Leave GCVRZ to the speculators and get back to value investing!